The Mirandolan provides in-depth analysis of how changes in the capital cycle within an industry will affect future returns or how the competitive position of a company will change according to changes in the industry’s supply side. The Mirandolan takes a global view of investments and posts will reflect this worldwide search for companies with high returns and long growth appreciation periods, that is, those companies with strong defences against the destructive effects of the capital cycle; or in businesses with low returns where invested capital is declining, and the growth appreciation period increasing. In all instances, we seek to buy where prices reflect unreasonably low expectations for future growth, reflected in a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 1.6 or less, where PEBV measures the difference between the market’s expectations for future profits and the zero-growth value of the stock.
The Mirandolan is written by me, Joseph Noko and reflects my investment decisions and thinking. Over the last 15 years, I have been a gold miner, exploited arbitrage opportunities in the scrap metal business, written peer-reviewed papers on philosophy, finance and economics, and a book chapter in Money in a Human Economy. Working under the most severe and uncertain conditions gave me a unique appreciation for the joys of investing in businesses with very wide moats and for the importance of a long-term view in a world of radical uncertainty. These experiences taught me, also, that winning is about playing the inner game well, about occupying that space between stillness and a fanatical thirst for victories.